5 Predictions for 2010
As we come to the end of 2009 you’ll likely see multiple prediction posts coming up. Below are some of the trends I’ve been seeing which we can expect to continue and improve on in 2010. Please don’t change your business based simply off these predictions. They are simply my opinion, and I will be moving along these lines in the new year.
1. More Focus on Real Useful Content
Right now seo is pretty much a popularity contest. Whoever has the most links with the right anchor text wins. That’s it. If you want to rank well, get more “content” (whether good or bad) and get a ton of incoming links to that content that uses the keyword phrase you want.
I don’t know if it will happen next year, but I predict there is coming a time that the big search engines figure this out and institute a way to “judge” how useful this content is to their visitors.
Already Google appears to keep track of how long their visitors stay at ads they click through in the Adwords program. If a large number of visitors click on your ad and immediately click back to Google in a competitive market, you’ll see your quality scores start dropping. That technology could also be used in the free results to start categorizing the sites people are visiting.
Whether they’ll use that, a voting system, or some other method I don’t know, but we can expect they will eventually find a way to provide better results to those who are giving visitors what they’re looking for. Any business built off of tricking the search engines is eventually doomed to failure (because if you’re tricking search engines you’ll also likely tricking your visitors).
Build an authority site with quality content on your subject. Connect with others in your market to build real links. Deliver what your visitors and customers are looking for.
2. Improved Sales Videos
Video will continue to grow. Right now in tests it is running a pretty close contest between “long copy” and sales videos to make the sale. Tests seem to lean toward whatever is your strongest skill set (meaning those who are great writers do better with written sales pieces while those more comfortable on video do better with sales videos and webinars).
Over the next year we will see an improvement in the quality of these sales videos. Right now the majority are simply a talking head or a Powerpoint presentation. We can expect to see more demonstrations of products on sales pages, plus better use and editing for video.
Right now online sales videos lag way behind TV commercials in quality. We will see a little closing of this difference with more stories told through videos in the coming year. You can expect the best selling videos will also have TV commercial quality titles and transitions in them.
If you’re not already developing your video skills, 2010 is definitely the year to get started.
3. More Focus on Site Design & Functionality
The old one page long sales letter model is not working as effectively for new visitors (it still seems to win when delivering to previous customers and list subscribers). In some recent tests, videos have been winning (as mentioned above). In others, splitting the page into multi-step pages is working (one page that lists the primary benefits and starts the story with the rest on future pages).
In other tests I’ve been doing the design itself has proven very important. People look at your site to see how professional it looks. They check the photos to see if they integrate into the sales message. Where we could ignore design a couple of years ago, that is changing.
You can even shorten copy by making part of it interactive where it only opens up for those who are interested in hearing more. Michel Fortin provides the javascript you need to do this in his post “How to Make Salesletters Interactive.” Bookmark that post to use the code he provides.
The Internet is NOT just a direct marketing sales medium, like we have treated it for years. It is also a communication tool to have a conversation with your customers and prospects. It’s a dialogue instead of a monologue. We’ll probably see smaller businesses like us institute some type of real feedback mechanism into our sales copy instead of simply listing all the testimonials.
I’ve noticed an online purchasing habit of my own lately. I see someone advertising a product. Almost without fail I open up Amazon.com and search for the product there. Because I want to see REAL reviews of the product since Amazon allows both good and bad feedback. I may go back to the site to purchase, but I wanted to see those reviews before buying first.
How exactly we’ll integrate this (and keep competitors from taking advantage of it and posting bad reviews) is yet to be seen, but you can expect it’s coming. Use the dialogue nature of the Internet to expand on your credibility.
4. Longer Sales Funnels
If you made no changes to your site, you will notice that conversions are down over the past year. They vary by market but a 20% to 30% drop is common for those who haven’t been testing and improving their sales copy. Of course with the right testing and improvements, your conversion should be up…not down!
This connects in with the other issues above…and people are not as likely to making instantaneous purchases online. The clients I have who have the best conversion look at it as a funnel and a process…not a one shot sale.
This means you get them on a list. No surprise there. And you follow-up by email, teleconferences, webinars, and offline mailings. That first 30 day period after someone joins your list is the big sales period (when a majority of sales are made), but we’re finding sales coming further out this year also.
You’ll also find that the majority of sites doing extremely well are running multiple upsells after the first purchase. You purchase A…and then are offered B…and then C…and so on. This is where the real profits come in a competitive marketplace. This means you have multiple products for sale (or affiliate products you can recommend in the series).
These follow-up upsells aren’t always “required,” but you’ll find them vital in competitive markets. And once you put them in place you’ll see how a good portion of the net profits are coming from them…not from the first low cost product sold.
5. Deeper Businesses
Google hates affiliates. Ok, they probably don’t hate them, but their actions make it seem like it at times. This past week was another cleaning out of affiliates from Adwords. Many affiliates who promote directly or who promote a landing page that takes you over to an affiliate link had their accounts canceled again.
Google is only one source of advertising, but affiliates sure have been put into pain over this multiple times during the past few months.
Google’s logic appears to be they’re only interested in affiliates who build up their own substantial site and content. Those who have been focusing on an authority site and getting people on their own personal list have mostly survived through these purges.
You can get mad about it. You can use other sources of traffic (and you should). But in the end it is part of a longer trend. You need to find a way to build a deeper, more substantial business.
This means that while you promote affiliate programs, you’re not relying on a specific one in your market. Instead you’re finding multiple products and services which are related. You’re building up your heavy content rich site. You’re building a list. You’re promoting the core programs plus other related items. In addition you may run ads for sell on your site.
You’re building your business and your authority. If an affiliate program screws you over, you switch and promote a different one. You’re the one in control. It’s your list and your audience.
For product based businesses, you need to find multiple items you can sell. Some are yours. Some can be from others. But you still have to build the deeper business model.
What Does It All Mean?
All this simply means the Internet is growing up. The Wild West attitude is thankfully disappearing. This is also why you see me constantly talking about how this is a REAL business. I believe it’s the best business in the world because you can follow your passion, have a load of fun, and make your own schedule. But it is not simply a “business opportunity” where you push a few buttons and money comes out.
Here’s looking forward to 2010…and the growth of your business!
Related Entries:- What About Product Launches?
- 3 Types of Websites…Which Ones Are Right for You?
- Building a List – FAST
- Octopus Marketing Strategies
- Successful and Failed Experiments
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19 Responses to “5 Predictions for 2010”
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Terry,
Right on man…great post.
Adding one more IMHO…
6. Joining your own conversation will become more important (transparency).
The Internet has always made it possible for people to provide feedback on a product, service, person, or company. It will become more and more important for Internet Marketers to participate in their “own conversation”…either by starting that conversation themselves or participating in one that has already started (good or bad).
Transparency will become a very important currency in 2010 (not that it isn’t now, but it will become increasingly important).
Terry,
I guess the good news is that if you’re interested in actually building a real internet business, with Robust front end, conversion machine and diversified (and stable) back end monetization, the internet is still the most powerful communications and marketing platform ever invented.
My question on the sequential upsells though is:
How long do you think it’ll be before the market gets sick of the upsell scripts with a chain of 3 to 5 or more up-sell attempts?
Thanks for the post.
Hi Terry … great post (as always).
I wanted to jump in with my two cents here given our experience at the agency, my own personal projects, and the students I coach.
My very strong opinion at this juncture is that Google (and the other engines will and must follow suit) is interested in SUBSTANTIAL business models, as compared to what they deem “UNSUSTAINABLE” business models.
Think of the “electronic dream”… the hundreds of thousands of vendors who caught the internet marketing bug thinking all they’d need to do is move electrons around the internet and money would appear in their bank account. When this dream is accompanied by the addition of real VALUE to the transaction it makes markets more efficient, reduces complaints, and makes for happy vendors, customers, and media providers.
Unfortunately, what Google’s found is that all too often the electronic dream is accompanied by electronic dishonesty and electronic laziness. And since, given the scale of their operation they need to address this algorithmically (e.g. using robots and software, not human editors), they’re not really capable of making case by case judgments about whether a given site is honestly attempting to provide substance and value.
So with just a few lines of code, out go affiliate review sites, arbitrage sites, PPC traffic brokers… and unfortunately a goodly number of genuinely valuable sites along with them.
Now here’s a problem we all need to be aware of. (And please note this is my well considered opinion only, not hearsay directly from Google, etc)
If you had millions of advertisers promoting millions of sites and you had to make a simple rule of thumb to separate the wheat from the chaff, what would be the absolute easiest way to do so?
Think hard for a second.
It would be to eliminate people who were strictly pursuing the electronic dream. People who “sold air” (yes, I know it’s really valuable air, you’re preaching to the choir)… which unfortunately means you and I as information marketers, at least in the form we currently use to pursue the trade.
What’s substantial and sustainable, in Google’s mind (my opinion only)
are physical products promoted via an e-commerce interface (a shopping cart catalog with multiple categories, items, and the ability to order a multitude of products in one visit via the cart interface).
Now, here’s the thing. I’m of the conviction that we information marketers can rise to the occasion and use our skills to provide such sites BETTER than they’re presently being implemented. And I don’t believe any of this means we have to stop selling digital products, using long copy salesletters, etc.
What it does mean is we all need to be attending to evolving our sites to include some element of more traditional ecommerce with shipment of physcial product IN ADDITION if we want to survive and thrive.
And although the “greased chute” model is so effective for us as direct response marketers, we need to acknowledge and accept that Google is training searchers to prefer the “browse and buy” modality with navigation above the fold. (One of your tabs can still be a long scrolling salesletter)
Anyway – you got me on a soap box.
I hope this was helpful.
Dr. G
Hi Terry,
This article you’ve done is really good.
Thank you for sharing your vision!
Regards,
Frederico Vila Verde
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Hi Joseph:
I definitely agree. And it will be interesting to see what comes down the stream to help us participate in the conversation on our own sites as well.
Hi Gogo:
You will notice if you’ve purchased from me that I don’t have an “upsell scripts with a chain of 3 to 5 or more up-sell attempts.” I do offer upsells though. Those annoy me to no end personally. I’ve had one recently (no names) where after being put through that I committed not to buy from that person again.
I think the best long-term model here could be compared to what Amazon already does. You put stuff in your cart…they recommend other items. You purchase…they recommend items when finished. You then get emails recommending similar items. They have a series of upsells but it is by no means annoying because of how they do it.
Hi Glenn:
Looks like I hit a subject Glenn wanted to talk about! Can I smell a post of your own coming on?
Note: Website coming up in next 10 days or so.
Hey, GoGo
RE: too many upsales.
One is OK but more is tedious and I just blast through them.
Terry – Thanks for the post. Very insightful.
What surprises me, is that someone else is seeing these things. I was on the I=sales list in the early years (pre 2000), and we all saw most of this then. The Internet has changed the wold as we know it. People have been exposed to so much dishonesty, spam, etc. that even a hint of it turns them off. The “upsell funnel” practice is so close to dishonest that I personally won’t use, or recommend it.
As far as Google is concerned, there has to be a recognition of who *their* “buyer” really is. They exist to supply quality search information, to the searching person. They cannot be 100% no matter how hard they try. Perfection is impossible, but they will try. _I_ believe that info sellers can compete, by following basic rules. Provide products that your customers want; be _Honest_ at all times; carry on a conversation, do not preach at, or talk at, the potential customers.
Finally, use the three basic laws of advertising(c) to advertise effectively. I’m close to releasing a book on that subject, for small businesses (the ones that most need it).
None of this is really rocket science, all it takes time and willingness to study what’s happening. Looking at things with an open mind, and listening to the real experts. There are maybe 40-50 in actual fact, but 100′s that claim to be. Most are too busy making a living, to make themselves known. They can be found on lists, and only very rarely in the “get rich quick” ad’s. They are known for producing actual material, of real value. They share their knowledge if you really want it. Mostly, work hard, sell useful material, and be honest and ethical in your dealings. The same rules that have always worked.
I’ll make this disclosure up front – I’m an attorney, and I spend a lot of time with clients getting their websites “legal”. I’ve even automated the process to make it very cost effective, and easy.
If you haven’t noticed, one of the other trends that began this year, is now picking up steam, and surely will continue in 2010 is increased regulation of website businesses.
You’re probably aware of how aggressive the FTC has been lately with privacy and data security issues, and this month their “FTC Guides” went into effect. The FTC Guides regulate advertisers, endorsers, and bloggers regarding the obligations for (i) advertisers to monitor affiliates and bloggers, and (ii) for bloggers to disclose relationships with advertisers.
It’s true that the days of the “wild, wild west” are gone, and that goes for legal issues in operating a website business. And in this new environment, it’ll be a smart move to get your site “legal” for the new year.
Chip Cooper
PS – I’ve written several larticles on the subject of the FTC Guides and they’re on my site if you’re interested.
Yes I have to agree with one of the comments that it is very had to split the honest websites from dishonest websites. That sometimes the honest ones get in the dishonest list. I am going to read more of the comments and blogs because these tips and ideas are very helpful.
Each year there are predictions about what the next year will bring. However radical changes seldom occur. Its a gradual shift in all these points that we tend to magnify when we look at them individually. Let the next year be better than this one.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New year!
Hi Terry, I listened to you on the Fred Gleek radio show and thought you were great. Thanks, Ed
No predictions about Google or Bing? In regards to more useful content, I’m wondering what the future of paid subscriptions are for this content. With all the spammer scrapping stuff going on, I could see real sites getting people to pay for their content.
Terry,
I think you’re right on “Amazon’s upsell model”.
For years I’ve been a customer at Vistaprint.com and I find it amusing how much more stuff I end up buying from them because the suggested items are always so closely related to what I’ve already bought.
Thanks for the post and the reply.
Gogo
Thanks for the predictions Terry.
Yes, seo is a links game, and links don’t necessarily equal quality. I don’t know how the engines will address this, but it does seem clear they will try.
The long copy sales page being replaced by interactive pages (ie. good web design) that puts the reader in control of the experience? Wow!
I got a smile when reading that Mike Fortin is offering this new feature now, given that it could have been ten years ago that I argued for interactivity in sales page on his forum and others, only to be told again and again by the marketing “experts” that interactive was all wrong, Wrong, WRONG!
Links. They’ve been here since the invention of the Net. It’s great to see the marketing pros finally catching on to them.
I’m a huge fan of point #1.
Google is known to favor informational sites in the rankings, and I’d love to see this increase.
The importance of incoming links is unnaturally high, in my opinion – no pun intended.
Great article Terry. Thanks for sharing it. And the most important thing that i feel in this whole article is about having real useful content cause it all about how you portray yourself and also Google love new and fresh content in the world of SEO
What I found extremely relevant and true is the growth of video. Since Google bought Youtube, we’re seeing more and more video search results in deeper pages of Google. Besides adding the right tags and video titles on YouTube, Flickr and other companies have began to host video as well